The Weekly Insight will be suspended for July and August and return in September. There will be one more issue before the break.
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Weekly Insight (analysis by Al “Gunny” Davis)
EUR/USD: Week of 6/24/2012
At the time of last week’s analysis the EUR/USD was trading at 1. 26361. Our bias called for a rally of the EURUSD towards the upper range of the 1.26630 – 1.27830 bullish target zone and potentially up to the target zone of 1.28577 – 1.28754 (Mnr Tgt Zn). We anticipated a close & retest that stayed above these zones would open the way up towards the bullish target zone of 1.29370 – 1.29770. Our exit strategy called for a decline of the EURUSD towards the bearish target zones of 1.24770 – 1.24170 and potentially down to the target zone of 1.23170 – 1.22817. We anticipated a close & retest that stayed below these zones would open the way down towards the bearish target zone of 1.21929 – 1.21307 (MER 3).
Our “Timing Projections” were 6/16/12 – 6/17/12 and 6/21/12 – 6/22/12. On 6/18/12 the EUR/USD rallied to a high of 1.27468 and on 6/22/12 it declined to a low of 1.25191. The EUR/USD closed the week at 1.25677. There’s a factor of +/- 2 when using timing projections.
Our long-term price analysis still remains bullish as the waves appear to be unfolding in a larger degree corrective pattern (pennant, wedge or triangle). A decline below 1.18758 would signal the EURUSD is trading within a flag or descending channel and not within a pennant, wedge or triangle. We’re anticipating a long-term rally that will trade towards and potentially beyond the bullish target zone of 1.57770 – 1.60380. Our bias calls for a decline of the EURUSD towards the bearish target zones of 1.24770 – 1.24170 and potentially 1.23170 – 1.22817. We will then anticipate a retest of the “FCQ” & “FF” trendlines. A close & retest that stays below these bearish target zones will open the way down towards the target zones of 1.22370 – 1.21170 and potentially 1.21929 – 1.21307 (MER 3). Our exit strategy calls for the EURUSD to retest the “FCQ” & “FF” trendlines. A close & retest that stays above these trendlines will open the way up towards the target zone of 1.28577 – 1.28754 (Mnr Tgt Zn) and potentially 1.29370 – 1.29770.
Our long & short-term momentum indicators are mixed and signal a potential sideways trading range is a possibility over the next few trading days. The decline off of the 1.60380 high appears to be unfolding in a pennant, wedge or triangle shaped pattern. These patterns are continuation patterns and support our long term bullish outlook. A failure of this pattern would lead to much larger declines. The pattern could also be forming a descending channel or bullish flag pattern.
Our long term timing projections allow us to anticipate the potential of a significant swing point occurring between 6/24/12 & 6/28/12. Our short term timing projections allow us to anticipate a minor swing point may occur between 6/27/12 – 6/28/12 and also between 7/2/12 – 7/3/12.
Our timing projections have a factor of +/- 2 and allow us to anticipate potential turning points in the marketplace.
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