In the bigger picture, the EUR/USD still shows signs of further upside potential. The pair is currently trading in a well defined range with support at the 1.3690 area and resistance at the 1.4100 area. If you notice, the supports of this range are not being compromised and there is no progress being made on the bear side. This is a clear sign of strength. I would continue to look for long opportunities and expect this pair to break to new highs in the 1.4250 area possibly this week. The lowest risk prices are in the mid-to-low 1.3700′s. If you are looking to establish a swing trade at the present level, just keep in mind you are trading in the middle of the range which presents you with additional risk. In a clearly defined range, it is better to buy nearer the support and sell nearer the resistance until the range breaks which it will eventually. Remember the overall trend is up which makes it more possible for the resistances to break. In this situation shorting near the highs for a swing trade is much riskier than buying a support. Make sure you have lower expectations, scalp and/or use smaller stops, or simply avoid shorting all together until more bearish information presents itself.
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