July, 2010

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29
Jul 10

Update on GBPJPY and EURUSD Trade

We see that our divergence has confirmed that it was a false breakout to the upside, and can confidently say we’re back in the expected range. If your short, targets of the middle of the range should be first place to take some profits.

On our EURUSD triangle we were looking at, it looks like it broke to the upside, however, looking at it afterwards, we have the same concerns we saw with the GBPJPY “breakout”. CCI did not confirm the move and we start to see divergence also, so we warn you about jumping into a Long Trade.

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29
Jul 10

Breakout on $EURGBP

We see a nice breakout with good confirmation from our indicators for the breakout. We’ve been in this channel for about 10 days. And from a daily chart we have a 38.2 fib level at .8470 which could be a nice target. If your looking to take this trade, I would wait for a bit of a pull back before going long, we typically don’t recommend buying on high’s.

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28
Jul 10

EURUSD Potential Breakout of Triangle

Wanted to point out today the potential breakout of this triangle that we entered since mid-June. We also see the same divergence on our CCI Indicator from the move higher. Generally speaking EUR tends to trend for a few months, and then range for a few months. Not that there is anything normal with markets these days, it does point that we may see EUR start a range with 1.3000 being the top of the range, and the bottom yet to form (Usually its about 400-500 pip ranges). Either way, this is a great level to keep an eye out for, because if it stays in a range, we have a potential move of about 400-500 pips to the bottom of the range. If instead, we break upside from all the good news from Europe soverign-debt crisis, we should also see a nice sized move to the upside, so keep your eyes peeled on the triangle, we RIGHT at the tip….

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27
Jul 10

$GBPJPY False Breakout?

Today the GBPJPY pair broke above a 500 pip range that it has been in since beginning of June. This caused a lot of interest in buying for this pair throughout the day, despite Equities faltering after the open. When looking at this breakout, we see that the next logical level would be the 61.8 Fib level of 138.50 which is a good 150 pips away at the time of this post. However there is something that is of concern, looking at our CCI indicator, we see that the moves up creates quite a bit of divergence. The move higher on the price, wasn’t confirmed by highs on the CCI. This in itself isn’t enough for us to jump into a short, but will make us think twice about buying this pair. Keep an eye out for this level, and if we see a rotation back down confirming the divergence, we could see this pair back at the bottom of this range which is about 600 pips from the current price.

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25
Jul 10

NZD/JPY 7/25/10 Short Trigger

Play of the Week

Be sure to check out the Cashmechanics.com website for updates. On the Home page, look under “What’s New”, Play of the Week.

NZD/JPY Short

Technicals:

NZD/JPY is in a very large range which can be observed on the daily time frame  (59.00 – 65.00).  Presently, price is near the higher part of this range.  There are resistance areas at 63.90 and 64.30.  If price goes into this area, I would expect selling pressuring to keep prices from breaking out of the range and can offer some nice profit potential if this pair decides to go back to the middle or even the low of the overall range.  So I am looking to short this pair at 63.90.  My stop will be placed at 64.60.  My profit target will be set at 62.70 which is conservative because if that breaks, this pair can go back into the low 61′s.

Remember this is a JPY cross.  This means it will be a little more volatile and will tend to follow the S&P a little more closely.

Play of the Week:

I am looking to go short at 63.90.

If filled, my protective stop is: 64.60

My profit target is: 62.70

Risk = 70 pips Reward = 120 pips

Best regards,

Pat Arcadipane
Chief Executive Manager
Cashmechanics.com

RISK WARNING: Off-exchange foreign currency trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and, therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with off-exchange foreign currency trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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18
Jul 10

EUR/JPY 7/18/10 Looking to Short Sell

Play of the Week

Be sure to check out the Cashmechanics.com website for updates. On the Home page, look under “What’s New”, Play of the Week.

EUR/JPY SHORT

UPDATE 7/25/10:   This trade was stopped out early in the week for -80.  

Technicals:

The daily trend is still bearish defined by lower highs and lower lows.  Presently the bearish momentum on this time frame has stalled and the pair has been range-bound since the beginning of June (107.50 – 113.30).  After examining the details on a 4-hour chart, the pair looks like it has reached the high of this larger range and has been consolidating further into a minor range (111.40 – 113.90) .  There is a short set-up that can trigger a move back to the middle if not the bottom of the larger range.  Look to short this pair if 111.80 is broken.  If this trade is not working, you should exit at 112.63.  Thats a risk of 83 pips for a possible reward of atleast 130 pips and if the bearish momentum really kicks in, it is possible to retest the major range lows which is over 400 pips lower.

Note: KNOW THIS PAIR.  IT IS MUCH MORE VOLATILE THAN A MAJOR LIKE EUR/USD.  IF YOU ARE NOT COMFORTABLE WITH THE RISK OR VOLATILITY, TRADE SMALL POSITIONS OR ON PRACTICE ACCOUNT.

Play of the Week:

I am looking to go short at: 111.80

If filled, my protective stop is 112.63

My profit target is 110.50

Risk =  83 pips   Reward = 130 pips

Best regards,

Pat Arcadipane
Chief Executive Manager
Cashmechanics.com

RISK WARNING: Off-exchange foreign currency trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and, therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with off-exchange foreign currency trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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12
Jul 10

USD/JPY 7/11/10 Looking to Short Sell

Play of the Week

UPDATE: 7/13/10  We were stopped out with a -80 pip loss

Be sure to check out the Cashmechanics.com website for updates. On the Home page, look under “What’s New”, Play of the Week.

USD/JPY

Technicals:

USD/JPY has been in a strong bearish trend.  Its recent retracement is within an old support level which should act as a new resistance (89 area) when looking at the daily time frame.   If this pair can sell below 88.25, there can be further bearish momentum.  It is also reasonable to expect this pair to make new lows meaning it should go below 86.80 area if the trend should stay intact.   Our chosen target is a conservative one and is dependent on the test of the recent low. If that low holds, that would indicate that the current bearish momentum is beginnig to diminish.  It is also possible for this pair to work its way higher into the current resistance area so that’s why it is extremely imporant to wait for the trigger.

Play of the Week:

I am looking to go short at: 88.25

If filled, my protective stop is 89.05

My profit target is 87.15

Risk =  80 pips   Reward = 110 pips

(disclaimer: this trade is for educational purposes only and is NOT in any way trading advice.  There is extremely high risk in currency trading.  Please consult your financial professional before considering this type of risk)

 

Best regards,

Pat Arcadipane
Chief Executive Manager
Cashmechanics.com

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6
Jul 10

EURGBP 7/4/10 Short Trigger

Play of the Week 


Be sure to check out the Cashmechanics.com website for updates. On the Home page, look under “What’s New”, Play of the Week.

UPDATE 7/6/10: Trade never triggered.  Remove entry orders. 

EUR/GPB 

Make sure you are familiar with the EUR/GBP before you consider this trade. If you are not familiar with EUR/GBP trading, take it on paper. It has different characteristics than the EUR/USD. 

 

Technicals:
There is a 20 day moving average resistance at .8265.  If the daily low support breaks at .8215 or below, we should expect a continuation of the bearish trend. A break above the stop level can take us to the daily swing high which indicates a bullish situation.

 Play of the Week:

I am looking to go short at: .8215 area. 

If filled, my protective stop is .8305

My profit target is .8070

Risk =  90 pips   Reward = 145 pips

  

(disclaimer: this trade is for educational purposes only and is NOT in any way trading advice.  There is extremely high risk in currency trading.  Please consult your financial professional before considering this type of risk)

 

Best regards,

Pat Arcadipane    
Chief Executive Manager
Cashmechanics.com 

 

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