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16
Mar 12

EURUSD: Short Position Still in Play

Reposted from DailyFX.com

 

Strategy: Short at 1.2993 (avg), Targeting 1.2864

Floating Profit / Loss: -96 pips

We initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026 as the pair completed a Head and Shoulders topping chart formation. A stop-loss will be triggered on a daily close above 1.3378. The near-term downward trajectory remains intact for now, defined by a falling trend line set from the February 29 high and reinforced by a confluence of Fibonacci levels in the 1.3103-1.3156 area. I will continue holding short, initially targeting 1.2864. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.3378.

EURUSD_Short_Position_Still_in_Play_body_eurusd.png, EURUSD: Short Position Still in Play

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15
Feb 12

EUR/USD: Bullish long term; Minor swing points still expected in the next two weeks

Hello Trader
Attend free Wednesday web conferences at 8 pm Eastern Time, 0100 GMT. The next web conference is February 15- Real-time forex analysis using Elliott Wave Theory with Gunny Davis.   Register at https://cashmechanics.omnovia.com/registration
Also, check out our daily analysis of 6 major currency pairs, FX NOW at http://cashmechanics.com/fx-now.html
Weekly Insight
(analysis by Al “Gunny” Davis) 
EUR/USD: Bullish long term; Minor swing points still expected in the next two weeks
REVIEW

At the time of last week’s analysis the EUR/USD was trading at 1.31561.  Our bias called for the EUR/USD to rally towards our bullish target zones of 1.33070 – 1.33470 and potentially 1.34370 – 1.34890.  Our exit strategy called for the EUR/USD to decline towards our bearish target zones of 1.29770 – 1.29370 and potentially 1.27830 – 1.26630.  In our timing analysis we anticipated a minor swing point would occur between 2/4/12 – 2/7/12 and also between 2/13/12 – 2/15/12.

On 2/6/12 the EUR/USD declined to a low of 1.30273 and on 2/9/12 it rallied to a high of 1.33210.  The EUR/USD closed the week at 1.31957.

ANALYSIS

Our long term price analysis still remains bullish as the waves appear to be unfolding in a larger degree corrective pattern (pennant, wedge or triangle).  We’re anticipating a long term rally that will trade towards and potentially beyond the bullish target zone of 1.57770 – 1.60380.  Our bias calls for a short term rally in the EUR/USD towards our bullish target zones of 1.33070 – 1.33470, 1.34370 – 1.34890 and potentially 1.36090 – 1.36930.  We will then be anticipating a decline towards our bearish target zones of 1.29770 – 1.29370 and potentially 1.27830 – 1.26630.  Our exit strategy calls for the EUR/USD to rally beyond our bullish target zone of 1.36090 – 1.36930 and towards our bullish target zone of 1.38545 – 1.45575 (this zone is a bullish target zone from our 2012 Euro Outlook).

The long term momentum indicators are bullish.  The decline off of the 1.51437 high appears to be unfolding in a pennant, wedge or triangle shaped pattern.  It also appears to be a smaller pennant, wedge or triangle shaped pattern within a larger degree pennant, wedge or triangle shaped pattern from the decline at 1. 60380.  Pennants, wedges and triangles are continuation patterns and support our long term bullish outlook.  A failure of this pattern would lead to much larger declines.

TIMING

Our long term timing projections allow us to anticipate the potential of a significant swing point occurring between 6/24/12 & 6/28/12 with our midterm timing projections at 3/4/12 & 3/18/12.  Our short term timing projections allow us to anticipate a minor swing point may occur between 2/13/12 – 2/15/12 and also between 2/17/12 – 2/20/12.

Our timing projections allow us to anticipate potential turning points in the marketplace. With our timing projections there’s a factor of +/- 2.

Come join us during our daily chat room sessions as well as our weekly webinar series and observe the methodologies and strategies we use that allow us to make these types of projections. Now FREE all the time. Register at http://www.cashmechanics.com/chat-room-pay.html and receive access and the Chat Room discussion schedule.
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02
Feb 12

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31
Jan 12

EUR/USD: Short term chop zone

Hello Trader
Attend free Wednesday web conferences at 8 pm Eastern Time, 0100 GMT. Next web conference is February 1- 2012 EURO & GOLD Outlook: Real-time analysis with Gunny Davis.   Register at https://cashmechanics.omnovia.com/registration
Also, check out our daily analysis of 6 major currency pairs, FX NOW at http://cashmechanics.com/fx-now.html
Weekly Insight
(analysis by Al “Gunny” Davis) 
EUR/USD: Short term chop zone
REVIEW

At the time of last week’s analysis the EUR/USD was trading at 1.29298.  Our bias called for the EUR/USD to decline & retest the bearish target zones of 1.28490 – 1.28070 and potentially 1.27830 – 1.26630.  We were then looking for the EUR/USD to continue its rally up to the bullish target zone of 1.30470 – 1.30770.  We anticipated a close & retest that stayed above 1.30470 – 1.30770 would then open the way up to the bullish target zone of 1.31363 – 1.32366.  Our exit strategy called for a larger decline towards our bearish target zones of 1.25070 – 1.23897 and 1.23170 – 1.22817.    The EUR/USD declined to a low of 1.28532 on 1/22/12 and then rallied to a high of 1.32290 on 1/27/12.  The EUR/USD closed the week at 1.32189.

In our timing analysis we anticipated a minor swing point would occur between 1/24/12 – 1/26/12 and also between 1/31/12 – 2/1/12.

ANALYSIS

Our long term price analysis still remains bullish as the waves appear to be unfolding in a larger degree 5-wave corrective pattern.   We’re anticipating a long term rally that will trade towards and potentially beyond the bullish target zone of 1.57770 – 1.60380.  Our bias calls for the EUR/USD to rally up to the bullish target zones of 1.33070 – 1.33470 and potentially 1.34370 – 1.34890.  We will then look for the EUR/USD to decline down to the target zone of 1.30770 – 1.30470 and potentially down to 1.2977 – 1.2937.   Our exit strategy calls for the EUR/USD to continue its rally towards our bullish target zones of 1.36090 – 1.36930.

Our long term momentum indicators are mixed and signal a potential sideways choppy market or a sharp decline in the EUR/USD over the next few trading days.  The lower timeframe’s momentum indicators are overbought and we’re looking for clues and signals that will indicate a decline in the EUR/USD has begun.

TIMING

Our long term timing projections allow us to anticipate a potential significant swing point may occur between 3/4/12 & 3/18/12.  Our short term timing projections allow us to anticipate a minor swing point may occur between 1/31/12 – 2/1/12 and also between 2/4/12 – 2/7/12.  Our timing projections allow us to anticipate potential turning points in the marketplace. With our timing projections there’s a factor of +/- 2.

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17
Jan 12

EUR/USD: Short term bearish momentum

Weekly Insight
(analysis by Al “Gunny” Davis) 
EUR/USD: Short term bearish momentum
REVIEW

At the time of last week’s analysis the EUR/USD was trading at 1.27188.  Our bias called for the EUR/USD to trade within a choppy (sideways) market with a potential rally up to the bullish target zones of 1.31448 – 1.31721 & 1.32419 – 1.32711 and then a subsequent decline towards the bearish target zone of 1.27830 – 1.26630.  Our exit strategy called for a rally that would trade up to the target zone of 1.34568 – 1.34683.  The EUR/USD declined to a low of 1.26241 on 1/13/12 and closed the week at 1.26754.  In our timing analysis we were looking for a turning point between 1/10/12 – 1/11/12.

 

ANALYSIS

Our long term price analysis still remains bullish as the waves appear to be unfolding in a larger degree 5-wave corrective pattern.   We’re anticipating a long term rally that will trade towards and potentially beyond the target zone of 1.57770 – 1.60380.  The current decline of the EUR/USD is supported by the bearish momentum on the lower timeframes.  Our bias calls for the EUR/USD to continue its decline down to the target zone of 1.25070 – 1.23897.  There’s a tremendous amount of confluence at the target zone of 1.24770 – 1.24170 and I’ll be observing how the EUR/USD reacts there.  Our exit strategy calls for a rally that will retest the upper boundary of target zone 1.26630 – 1.27830.  A close & retest that stays above this zone will open the way for a rally towards the target zones of 1.29370 – 1.29770 and 1.31363 – 1.32366.

Our long term momentum indicators signal the EUR/USD’s bearish momentum may be coming to an end.  The lower timeframe’s momentum indicators are still bearish and I’ll be using them to signal the start of a rally that could last for several weeks.

TIMING

Our long term timing projections allow us to anticipate a potential significant swing point may occur between 3/4/12 & 3/18/12.  Our short term timing projections allow us to anticipate a minor swing point may occur between 1/16/12 – 1/19/12 and also between 1/24/12 – 1/26/12.  Our timing projections allow us to anticipate potential turning points in the marketplace. With our timing projections there’s a factor of +/- 2.

Come join us during our daily chat room sessions as well as our weekly webinar series and observe the methodologies and strategies we use that allow us to make these types of projections. Now FREE all the time. Register at http://www.cashmechanics.com/chat-room-pay.html and receive access and the Chat Room discussion schedule.

Follow us on Twitter and Facebook
Best regards, 

Pat Arcadipane 
Chief Executive Manager
Cashmechanics.com 

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12
Jan 12

Euro May Rally Further Against US Dollar

ssi_eur-usd_body_Picture_5.png, Euro May Rally Further Against US Dollar

EURUSD – Forex trading crowds turned aggressively net-long the Euro/US Dollar when it traded below $1.3000 and gave signal that the pair could continue its declines. Yet a more recent moderation in sentiment suggests that the pace of declines may slow. In fact, a bigger shift in sentiment would favor an important Euro reversal higher.

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.06 as approximately 51 percent of traders are long—quite near neutral. This is mostly unchanged from yesterday, but it is significant to note that long positions fell 24.4 percent since last week while shorts have climbed 28.8 percent in the same stretch.

The considerable shift towards crowd selling warns that the Euro could soon turn higher. The risk of reversal can likewise be seen on potential sentiment extremes in Euro futures and options positioning.

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11
Jan 12

British Pound and Euro Pace Losses Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

Fundamental Headlines

• CFTC May Vote on Derivative Rules for Munis – Bloomberg

• Regulators May Expand Definition of ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ – Bloomberg

• ECB Must do More to Prevent Euro Collapse: Fitch – Reuters

• German Economy Contracted at End of 2011 – WSJ

• Monti, Merkel Talks Focus on Growth – WSJ

European Session Summary

The rally by higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets that has taken place since European pre-market hours on Monday hit a snag on Wednesday, after a myriad of disappointing data from across Europe suggested 2012 would be a difficult year, regardless of the Euro-zone crisis. Data showed that the United Kingdom’s trade deficit rose more than expected, while shop-price inflation slowed to its lowest rate in sixteen months. The British economy is stagflating, which has stoked speculation that the Bank of England may be forced to inject more stimulus, dragging down the Pound.

Moving to the continent itself, Germany’s statistics office announced that growth had contracted by almost 0.3 percent, ending a two year growth streak. A second consecutive quarter of contraction would pull the German economy into a recession, suggesting that if Europe’s strongest economy has trouble staying afloat, then the periphery will almost certainly post negative growth figures in the quarters ahead.

GBP/USD 5-min Chart: January 11, 2012

British_Pound_and_Euro_Pace_Losses_Ahead_of_Central_Bank_Meetings_body_Picture_1.png, British Pound and Euro Pace Losses Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

Charts created using Strategy Trader– Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

Overall, the British Pound and the Euro led declines among the majors on Wednesday, with the U.S. Dollar and the Japanese Yen as the top performers, respectively. The commodity currencies remained firmer than their European counterparts, as both energy (oil) and precious metals (gold) have ticked higher in recent days. While part of this can be attributed to Iranian saber rattling (oil), the European Central Bank’s increasingly dovish monetary policy stance has boosted market liquidity, aiding the carry trade and risk-appetite.

Tomorrow’s rate decisions are particularly important, considering both the BOE and ECB are rumored to be considering expanding their stimulus packages, in the form of lower rates or further liquidity injections, or both. While lower rates would help support risk taking by market participants, both the British Pound and the Euro would face downside pressure against the U.S. Dollar, as the interest rate differential between those currencies and the Greenback would slide further in favor of the world’s reserve currency.

24-Hour Price Action

British_Pound_and_Euro_Pace_Losses_Ahead_of_Central_Bank_Meetings_body_Picture_10.png, British Pound and Euro Pace Losses Ahead of Central Bank MeetingsBritish_Pound_and_Euro_Pace_Losses_Ahead_of_Central_Bank_Meetings_body_Picture_4.png, British Pound and Euro Pace Losses Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

Key Levels: 14:00 GMT

British_Pound_and_Euro_Pace_Losses_Ahead_of_Central_Bank_Meetings_body_Picture_7.png, British Pound and Euro Pace Losses Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

Thus far, on Wednesday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index is higher, trading at 10007.19, at the time this report was written, after opening at 9966.30. The index has traded mostly higher, with the high at 10016.04 and the low at 9960.99.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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10
Jan 12

USD Index Points To Further Strength, Sterling To Face Range-Bound Prices

DJ FXCM Dollar Index

Index Last High Low Daily Change (%) Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index 9961.94 9988.98 9947.01 -0.23 66.22%

USD_Index_Points_To_Further_Strength_Sterling_To_Face_Range-Bound_Prices_body_ScreenShot064.png, USD Index Points To Further Strength, Sterling To Face Range-Bound Prices

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains 0.23 percent lower from the open after moving 66 percent of its average true range, and the greenback may weaken further over the next 24-hours of trading as price action remains confined in a downward trend channel. However, as the 30-minute relative strength index holds above oversold territory, the lack of momentum to push below 30 could set the stage for a short-term correction, and we may see the index work its way back towards the upper Bollinger Band around 9,973, which coincides with the bounds of the downward trending channel. As the recovery in the world’s largest economy gradually gathers pace, the Fed’s Beige Book may highlight an improved outlook for the region, and the report may prop up the greenback should we see the central bank talk down speculation for additional monetary support.

USD_Index_Points_To_Further_Strength_Sterling_To_Face_Range-Bound_Prices_body_ScreenShot065.png, USD Index Points To Further Strength, Sterling To Face Range-Bound Prices

The bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart continues to instill a mixed outlook for the USD, but it seems as though the index is finding near-term support around the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement around 9,947, which could pave the way for a higher high. In light of the recent developments coming out of the world’s largest economy, the more robust recovery may encourage the central bank to raise its fundamental assessment for the region, and the Beige Book may spark a bullish reaction in the reserve currency as it dampens the scope for another large-scale asset purchase program. In turn, the 61.8 percent Fib may ultimately hold up as new support, which could spark another run at the 78.6 Fib around 10,117. As the index appears to be stuck within an ascending triangle, it seems as though there’s a greater chance of seeing a major move to the upside, and the bullish sentiment underlining the USD should gather pace over the near-term as we expect the Federal Reserve to talk down expectations for QE3.

USD_Index_Points_To_Further_Strength_Sterling_To_Face_Range-Bound_Prices_body_ScreenShot066.png, USD Index Points To Further Strength, Sterling To Face Range-Bound Prices

All four components gained ground against the USD, led by a 0.87 percent advance in the Australian dollar, while the British Pound gained another 0.12 percent on Tuesday. Although the Bank of England is scheduled to convene later this week, the policy meeting may fail to product volatility in the exchange rate as the central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.50 percent while maintaining its asset purchase program at GBP 275B. Should the BoE refrain from releasing a policy statement, market participants will certainly look forward to the meeting minutes due out on January 25, but the U.K. event risks on tap for later this week may weigh on the exchange rate as we’re expecting to see a slowdown in economic activity paired with easing price pressures. As the GBP/USD maintains the broad range from the end of December, we should see the pound-dollar trend sideways over the near-term, but the sterling remains at risk of facing additional headwinds in the days ahead as market participants expect to see the BoE expand monetary policy further in 2012.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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05
Jan 12

Euro Forecast to Fall to Fresh Lows

ssi_eur-usd_body_Picture_7.png, Euro Forecast to Fall to Fresh Lows

EURUSD – Forex trading crowds have bought aggressively into Euro/US Dollar losses, giving contrarian signal that the pair could hit further lows. The Euro’s break of key support at the psychologically significant $1.30 mark and previous lows of $1.2850 opens up much larger declines. Yet we warn of getting aggressively short Euro as large speculators are their most bearish EURUSD in history.

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.69 as nearly 63% of traders are long. This is a noteworthy shift from yesterday when the ratio was at 1.25 and 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 19.0% higher than yesterday and 23.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.0% lower than yesterday and 20.2% weaker since last week

When retail trading crowds are long and continue growing further net-long, we often see subsequent EURUSD declines.

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04
Jan 12

US Dollar Poised for Declines on Trader Sentiment Extremes

From DailyFX

Forex futures and options positioning suggests that the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) could soon post important losses against the Euro, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and Swiss Franc.

CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows that speculative futures traders are their most net-long the US Dollar against the Euro on record. And though sentiment extremes are only clear in hindsight, there is real risk that the USD could see significant pullbacks on any sudden EURUSD short covering.

It will be critical to watch how the US Dollar trades through the first week of January. Typically we see highs and lows for the month set in the first and last week of the period. If the USD trades significantly lower, we could see a larger pullback into the final week of January.

Watch a presentation on how you can use FX Options risk reversals and this report in your swing trades.

Risk Reversals
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CAD USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD
1-Week 98.86% 91.36% 30.38% 1.15% 8.43% 86.21% 85.23%
1-Month 100.00% 100.00% 86.25% 2.35% 18.52% 43.10% 98.88%
3-Month 100.00% 96.10% 96.34% 19.28% 17.05% 93.02% 93.18%
12-Month 100.00% 93.06% 100.00% 30.49% 50.00% 91.67% 96.55%
DailyFX Volatility Index Percentiles
Volatility Index 1 Week 2 Weeks 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year
Indices 16.92% 15.38% 13.85% 1.56% 7.69%

forex_options_us_dollar_forecast_lower_body_Picture_1.png, US Dollar Poised for Declines on Trader Sentiment Extremes

Euro/US Dollar Options Analysis

forex_options_us_dollar_forecast_lower_body_Picture_2.png, US Dollar Poised for Declines on Trader Sentiment Extremes

Net Non-Commercial COT Futures Positioning (rhs)

1-Week Risk Reversal Percentile (lhs)

3-Month Risk Reversal Percentiles (lhs)

FX Options trading bias: Contrarian Bullish

Speculative futures traders are their most net-short the Euro against the US Dollar in history, while FX options traders have aggressively bet on and hedged against EURUSD rallies. The noteworthy divergence warns that the Euro may be at an important sentiment extreme and there is high risk of short-term reversal higher.

As is always the case, sentiment extremes and tops and bottoms are only clear in hindsight. We warn against getting aggressively long the EURUSD as it trades near fresh lows. Instead we might wait to see how the EUR closes the first week of January as a predictor of what it might do for the rest of the month. If we see a sharp bounce, it might be worthwhile to trade the pair higher into the remainder of January.

Australian Dollar/US Dollar Options Analysis

forex_options_us_dollar_forecast_lower_body_Picture_3.png, US Dollar Poised for Declines on Trader Sentiment Extremes

Net Non-Commercial COT Futures Positioning

1-Week Risk Reversal Percentile

3-Month Risk Reversal Percentiles

FX Options trading bias: Bullish

Both speculative futures traders and FX options markets are betting on and hedging against continued AUDUSD strength, giving us an overall bullish Australian Dollar trading bias. In fact, Net Non-commercial futures positioning is fairly modest by historical standards. In other words, there is plenty of room for further traders to go long as the pair hits fresh highs.

The clear risk to said analysis is a sharp correction in the highly-correlated US S&P 500 and broader financial markets. Yet all else remaining equal, we might expect the AUD to hit fresh highs before any important pullbacks.

British Pound/US Dollar Options Analysis

forex_options_us_dollar_forecast_lower_body_Picture_4.png, US Dollar Poised for Declines on Trader Sentiment Extremes

Net Non-Commercial COT Futures Positioning

1-Week Risk Reversal Percentile

3-Month Risk Reversal Percentiles

FX Options trading bias: Contrarian Bullish

Speculative futures traders remain net-short the British Pound against the US Dollar, but a sharp jump in FX Options risk reversals suggests many traders have shifted towards betting on and hedging against continued GBPUSD strength.

Indeed, it seems as though the GBPUSD may have further room to rally as traders cover short positions. We remain bullish—especially on a break of multi-month highs near $1.5800.

New Zealand Dollar/US Options Analysis

forex_options_us_dollar_forecast_lower_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Poised for Declines on Trader Sentiment Extremes

Net Non-Commercial COT Futures Positioning

1-Week Risk Reversal Percentile

3-Month Risk Reversal Percentiles

FX Options trading bias: Contrarian Bullish

New Zealand Dollar positioning shows that there is fairly significant room for fresh NZDUSD highs through upcoming trade. Speculative futures traders are basically their least bullish NZD since the pair set a significant bottom through early 2011. All the while, FX Options traders have shifted towards aggressive bets on and hedges against NZD strength.

As with the Australian Dollar, we see current FX futures and options positioning as supportive of further NZDUSD gains.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen Options Analysis

forex_options_us_dollar_forecast_lower_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Poised for Declines on Trader Sentiment Extremes

Net Non-Commercial COT Futures Positioning

1-Week Risk Reversal Percentile

3-Month Risk Reversal Percentiles

FX Options trading bias: Bullish

FX options traders are their most bullish USDJPY in at least 8 years, suggesting most have been betting on and hedging against Japanese Yen weakness (USDJPY gains). Speculative futures traders are likewise at their least short USDJPY since the pair last traded above the 80 mark, and overall it seems most are positioned for an important USDJPY reversal.

We have and will continue to warn that major tops and bottoms are only clear in hindsight. Yet there is evidence to suggest that the USDJPY could soon set an important reversal.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc Options Analysis

forex_options_us_dollar_forecast_lower_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Poised for Declines on Trader Sentiment Extremes

Net Non-Commercial COT Futures Positioning

1-Week Risk Reversal Percentile

3-Month Risk Reversal Percentiles

FX Options trading bias: Bullish

Futures traders remain aggressively net-long the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc, and the potential sentiment extreme warns that the pair could soon turn lower.

FX Options traders have indeed shifted towards betting on and hedging against USDCHF weakness. On balance, we see risks of an important USDCHF pullback.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar Options Analysis

forex_options_us_dollar_forecast_lower_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Poised for Declines on Trader Sentiment Extremes

Net Non-Commercial COT Futures Positioning (rhs)

1-Week Risk Reversal Percentile (lhs)

3-Month Risk Reversal Percentiles (lhs)

FX Options trading bias: Bearish

CFTC Commitment of Traders data recently showed that Non-Commercial trades remained near their most net-long USDCAD since 2009—at which point the USDCAD set an important high near the C$1.20 mark and continued lower.

Already we’ve seen the USDCAD pull back significantly off of recent peaks near the C$1.0500 mark, and the question now becomes whether we can expect further corrections through upcoming trade. The sharp turn lower in FX Options risk reversals suggests that traders are betting on and hedging against continued USDCAD weakness.

— Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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